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Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries

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by Andrew Berg & Enrico Berkes
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Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries by Andrew Berg & Enrico Berkes

The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At the core of the DSF are empirically-based thresholds for each of five different measures of the debt burden (the “debt threshold approach” DTA). The DSF contains a rule for aggregating the information contained in these five different variables which we label the “worst-case aggregator” (WCA) in view of the fact that the DSF considers a breach of any one of the thresholds sufficient to indicate a high risk of debt distress. However, neither the DTA nor the WCA has heretofore been subject to empirical testing. We find that: (1) the DTA loses information relative to a simple proposed alternative; (2) the WCA is too conservative (predicting crises too often) in terms of the loss function used in the DSF; and (3) the WCA is less accurate than some simple proposed alternative aggregators as a predictor of debt distress.

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Ebook Details
Pages: 39
Size: 964 KB
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Date published:   2014
ISBN: 9781475520545 (DRM-EPUB)

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This product is listed in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Development > Economic Development

These authors have products in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Finance
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Money & Monetary Policy

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01/16/2017
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