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Can Italy Grow Out of Its NPL Overhang? A Panel Threshold Analysis

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by Kamiar Mr. Mohaddes & Mehdi Mr. Raissi
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Can Italy Grow Out of Its NPL Overhang? A Panel Threshold Analysis by Kamiar Mr. Mohaddes & Mehdi Mr. Raissi

This paper examines whether a tipping point exists for real GDP growth in Italy above which the ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) to total loans falls significantly. Estimating a heterogeneous dynamic panel-threshold model with data on 17 Italian regions over the period 1997-2014, we provide evidence for the presence of growth-threshold effects on the NPL ratio in Italy. More specifically, we find that real GDP growth above 1.2 percent, if sustained for a number of years, is associated with a significant decline in the NPLs ratio. Achieving such growth rates requires decisively tackling long-standing structural rigidities and improving the quality of fiscal policy. Given the modest potential growth outlook, however, under which banks are likely to struggle to grow out of their NPL overhang, further policy measures are needed to put the NPL ratio on a firm downward path over the medium term.

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Ebook Details
Pages: 17
Size: 1.2 MB
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Date published:   2017
ISBN: 9781475588873 (DRM-EPUB)
9781475588910 (DRM-PDF)

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This product is listed in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics

These authors have products in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Environmental Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Investments & Securities
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Money & Monetary Policy
Nonfiction > Social Science > Third World Development

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06/29/2017
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