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China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility

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by Paul Mr. Cashin & Kamiar Mr. Mohaddes
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China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility by Paul Mr. Cashin & Kamiar Mr. Mohaddes

China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates.

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Ebook Details
Pages: 22
Size: 3.5 MB
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Date published:   2016
ISBN: 9781513590929 (DRM-EPUB)
9781475560411 (DRM-PDF)

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This product is listed in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Money & Monetary Policy
Nonfiction > Social Science > Third World Development

These authors have products in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Environmental Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Money & Monetary Policy
Nonfiction > Social Science > Third World Development

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03/27/2017
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