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Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

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by Fabio Comelli
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Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies by Fabio Comelli

We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher net foreign assets significantly reduce the probability of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to the size of the estimation sample, and to the crisis definition employed. For macroeconomic policy purposes, we conclude that a currency crisis definition identifying more rather than less crisis episodes should be used, even if this may lead to the risk of issuing false alarms.

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Ebook Details
Pages: 26
Size: 1.3 MB
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Date published:   2014
ISBN: 9781475589993 (DRM-EPUB)

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This product is listed in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Money & Monetary Policy
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Finance

This author has products in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Money & Monetary Policy
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Finance
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics

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05/27/2017
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