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Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops:Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?

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by Fabio Comelli
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Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops:Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other? by Fabio Comelli

We identify episodes of sudden stops in emerging economies and estimate the probability to observe them. Sudden stops are more likely when global growth falters, risk aversion in financial markets rises, and vulnerabilities in the external and financial sectors increase. However, the significance of the explanatory variables vary across regions. In Latin America and Eastern Europe, gross capital inflows are more responsive to changes in global growth than in Asia. Trade linkages tend to be more important than financial linkages in Eastern Europe, while in Asia and Latin America the opposite is true. The model captures only a third of sudden stops outside the estimation sample, but issues reliable sudden stop signals.

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Ebook Details
Pages: 34
Size: 3.5 MB
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Date published:   2015
ISBN: 9781513516912 (DRM-EPUB)

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This product is listed in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics

This author has products in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Money & Monetary Policy
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Finance
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics

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05/25/2017
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