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Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Ni?o

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by Paul Cashin & Kamiar Mohaddes
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Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Ni?o by Paul Cashin & Kamiar Mohaddes

This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Ni?o weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Ni?o shocks but also indirect effects through thirdmarkets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Ni?o weather events over time, and their impact on different regions crosssectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Ni?o shocks on growth, inflation, energy and non-fuel commodity prices. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to El Ni?o shocks. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Ni?o shock, for other countries (including the United States and European region), an El Ni?o occurrence has a growth-enhancing effect. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Ni?o weather episodes.

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Ebook Details
Pages: 30
Size: 2.2 MB
Date published:   2015
ISBN: 9781475522341 (DRM-EPUB)

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This product is listed in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics

These authors have products in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Banks & Banking
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International
Nonfiction > Business & Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics

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