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Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy:Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies

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by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Luis Felipe Cespedes
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Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy:Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Luis Felipe Cespedes

In this paper we first compare house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price data set covering the period 1990-2012. We find that house prices in emerging economies grow faster, are more volatile, less persistent and less synchronized across countries than in advanced economies. We also find that they correlate with capital flows more closely than in advanced economies. We then condition the analysis on an exogenous change to a particular component of capital flows. We find that a global liquidity shock, identified by aggregating bank-to-bank cross border flows and by using the external instrumental variable approach of Stock and Watson (2012) and Mertens and Ravn (2013), has a much stronger impact on house prices and consumption in emerging markets than in advanced economies. In our empirical model, holding house prices or the exchange rate constant in response to this shock tends to dampen its effects on consumption in emerging economies.

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Ebook Details
Pages: 43
Size: 2.6 MB
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Date published:   2015
ISBN: 9781475550931 (DRM-EPUB)

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This product is listed in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Money & Monetary Policy

These authors have products in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Money & Monetary Policy
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics

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03/24/2017
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