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How Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Affects the Present Value of GDP

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by Kevin Fletcher & Damiano Sandri
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How Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Affects the Present Value of GDP by Kevin Fletcher & Damiano Sandri

We develop a simple model to examine the conditions under which delaying fiscal consolidation can affect the present value of GDP via the fiscal stance’s effects on the output gap and hysteresis. We find that the absolute size of the fiscal multiplier—the focus of much empirical investigation and policy debate—is likely inconsequential in this regard. Rather, what matters is the degree to which the multiplier during the initial period of fiscal stimulus differs from the multiplier when the stimulus is withdrawn. If the multiplier is constant over time, delaying consolidation is unlikely to significantly boost the present value of GDP via effects on the output gap and hysteresis. The potential success of such efforts relies instead on exploiting time-variation in multipliers.

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Ebook Details
Pages: 31
Size: 1.4 MB
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Date published:   2015
ISBN: 9781484350805 (DRM-EPUB)

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This product is listed in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics

These authors have products in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics
Nonfiction > Social Science > Third World Development

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03/26/2017
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