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How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?

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by Sohrab Rafiq
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How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates? by Sohrab Rafiq

This paper uses a dataset on private-sector risk aversion as well as expectations of long-run growth and debt to explain trends in implied forward rates on government bonds in the G-7 countries. The results show, consistent with the literature, that a one-percent rise in the long-run projected debt-to-GDP ratio causes an increase in bond yields of a relatively modest 1-to-6 basis points. Shocks to growth expectations and risk aversion have been comparatively more successful in explaining the behavior of long-term rates. The findings imply that growth policies rather than long-run projections of fiscal outcomes may be more important in helping influence long-term borrowing costs.

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Ebook Details
Pages: 27
Size: 1.6 MB
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Date published:   2015
ISBN: 9781475578263 (DRM-EPUB)

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This product is listed in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics

This author has products in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics

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01/18/2017
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