Context. The Mauritanian economy is facing a significant negative terms-of-trade shock that is more persistent than initially envisaged. Low iron ore prices have reduced economic growth, export receipts, and net international reserves; widened the fiscal deficit; and increased risks to financial stability. Lower oil prices have, on the contrary, provided some support to the external and fiscal positions. The exchange rate continued appreciating in real term in 2015, moving counter to the terms-of-trade shock. The impact of the shock is compounded by a narrow production base, structural weaknesses and limited policy space in the context of elevated public debt and pressures on external buffers. Outlook and Risks. The economic outlook envisages a recovery in economic activity to 4.1 percent in 2016, but risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside and the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks. Over the medium term, current policies will result in sustained pressures on reserves and elevated debt driven by public investment plans. Subdued economic activity could hinder the capacity of the financial sector to channel credit toward private sector activity hampering efforts to achieve more diversified and robust economic growth. In the short term, the economy is most vulnerable to higher oil prices, lower-than-envisaged iron ore prices, and a stronger US dollar under the current exchange rate policy.
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|Size: ||8.5 MB|
|Publisher: ||INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND|
|Date published: || 2016|
|ISBN: ||9781475520071 (DRM-EPUB)|
|Read Aloud: ||not allowed|