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News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries

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by Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey
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News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries by Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey

This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.

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Ebook Details
Pages: 54
Size: 1.1 MB
Date published:   2015
ISBN: 9781513590769 (DRM-EPUB)
9781513570310 (DRM-PDF)

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This product is listed in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics

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Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Banks & Banking
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics

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