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The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty

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by Sandile Hlatshwayo & Magnus Mr. Saxegaard
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The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty by Sandile Hlatshwayo & Magnus Mr. Saxegaard

In recent years, the link between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and exports in South Africa has weakened. While exports still rise in response to REER depreciations, the REER-export elasticity is below historical estimates. The literature has put forward a number of possible explanations, from multi-national supply-chains to muted exchange rate pass-through. This research explores the role of policy uncertainty in reducing the responsiveness of exports to relative price changes. We construct a novel "news chatter" measure of policy uncertainty and examine how it, paired with other supply-side constraints, can improve our understanding of export performance. We find that increased policy uncertainty diminishes the responsiveness of exports to the REER and has short and long-run level effects on export performance. Finally, we show that a measure of competitiveness that adjusts for uncertainty and supply-side constraints greatly outperforms the REER in tracking exports performance.

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Ebook Details
Pages: 30
Size: 1.9 MB
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Date published:   2016
ISBN: 9781475540468 (DRM-EPUB)

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This product is listed in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics

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12/07/2016
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