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Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate-The Case of Brazil

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by Roberto Perrelli & Shaun K. Roache
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Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate-The Case of Brazil by Roberto Perrelli & Shaun K. Roache

Emerging markets have experienced a sizeable decline in their neutral real interest rates until recently. In this paper we try to identify the main factors that contributed to it, with a focus on Brazil. We estimate an interval for Brazil’s time-varying neutral rate based on a range of structural and econometric models. We assess the implications of incorrectly estimating a time-varying neutral rate using a small structural model with a simple monetary policy instrument rule. We find that policy prescriptions are very different when facing uncertainty of neutral rate and of output gap. Our result contrasts sharply with Orphanides (2002), suggesting that the best response to neutral rate uncertainty is to ensure policy remains highly sensitive to inflation and output variations.

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Ebook Details
Pages: 42
Size: 2.3 MB
Date published:   2014
ISBN: 9781484385296 (DRM-EPUB)

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This product is listed in the following category:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Inflation

These authors have products in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economic Conditions
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Inflation
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Finance
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics

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