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To Bet or Not to Bet

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by Fabio Mr. Comelli & Esther Perez Mrs. Ruiz
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To Bet or Not to Bet by Fabio Mr. Comelli & Esther Perez Mrs. Ruiz

A strand of research documents Chile's copper dependence hence significant exposure to terms of trade shocks. Copper prices' sharp decline and forecast uncertainty since the end of the commodity super-cycle has rekindled the debate on Chile's adjustment capacity to external shocks. Following Malz (2014), this paper builds a time-varying measure of copper price uncertainty using options contracts. VAR analysis shows that the investment response to an uncertainty shock of average magnitude in the sample is strong and persistent: the cumulative fall in investment from trend at a one-year horizon ranges 2-5.8 percentage points; and it takes between 1½ and 2 years for investment to return to its trend level. Empirical ranges depend on alternative definitions for investment, uncertainty, and options' maturing time

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Ebook Details
Pages: 23
Size: 1.6 MB
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Date published:   2016
ISBN: 9781475553758 (DRM-EPUB)
9781475553895 (DRM-PDF)

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This product is listed in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics

These authors have products in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Labor

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02/24/2017
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