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Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia

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by Romain A. Duval & Kevin C. Cheng
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Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia by Romain A. Duval & Kevin C. Cheng

This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.

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Ebook Details
Pages: 46
Size: 1.2 MB
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Date published:   2014
ISBN: 9781475523591 (DRM-EPUB)

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This product is listed in the following categories:

Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Banks & Banking

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Nonfiction > Business & Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > International > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Banks & Banking
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics
Nonfiction > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics

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01/24/2017
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