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Economics

Economics is a social science that studies the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services. It has several major fields of study.

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    Policy, Risk and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy by Francis Vitek    Tax Administration Reforms in the Caribbean by Stephane Schlotterbeck    Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions by Tom Mr. Krebs & Martin Mr. Scheffel    Fiscal Crises by Kerstin Mrs. Gerling & Paulo A. Mr. Medas    Financial Integration in Latin America by Charles Mr. Enoch & Wouter Bossu    Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional? by Dominic Mr. Quint & Pau Mr. Rabanal    Effectiveness of Fiscal Incentives for R&D by Irem Guceri & Li Ms. Liu    Exchange Rate Regimes in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe by Slavi T. Mr. Slavov    Real Exchange Rate and External Balance by JaeBin Mr. Ahn & Rui Mano    Das House-Kapital by Volker Grossman & Thomas Steger    Education Systems and Foreign Direct Investment by Elise Wendlassida Miningou & Sampawende J. Mr. Tapsoba    Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management by Cristiano Mr. Cantore & Paul L. Mr. Levine    Inequality Overhang by Francesco Grigoli & Adrian Robles    Consumption in Brazil by Troy D. Mr. Matheson & G    The Effects of Data Transparency Policy Reforms on Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by Sangyup Choi & Yuko Ms. Hashimoto    Financial Stability Reports in Latin America and the Caribbean by Cheng Hoon Lim & Alexander D. Mr. Klemm    World Trade in Services by Prakash Mr. Loungani & Saurabh Mr. Mishra    Excessive Private Sector Leverage and Its Drivers by Mariusz Jarmuzek & Rossen Rozenov    Does Prolonged Monetary Policy Easing Increase Financial Vulnerability? by Stephen Cecchetti & Tommaso Mancini Mr. Griffoli    Elinor Ostrom and the Bloomington School of Political Economy: A Framework for Policy Analysis by Daniel H. Cole & Michael D. McGinnis    Capitalists Arise! End Economic Inequality, Grow the Middle Class, Heal the Nation by Peter Georgescu & David Dorsey    Completing Capitalism: Heal Business to Heal the World by Bruno Roche & Jay Jakub    Composition of Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean by Xiaodan Ding & Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov    The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets by Maria Sole Pagliari & Swarnali Ahmed Hannan    Can Italy Grow Out of Its NPL Overhang? A Panel Threshold Analysis by Kamiar Mr. Mohaddes & Mehdi Mr. Raissi    Credit-Supply Shocks and Firm Productivity in Italy by D & Mehdi Mr. Raissi    Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Dutch Disease by Julia Faltermeier & Ruy Mr. Lama    The Macroeconomics of De-Cashing by Alexei P. Mr. Kireyev    Managing the Tide by Atish R. Mr. Ghosh & Jonathan David Mr. Ostry    Direct and Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies by Joseph E. Mr. Gagnon & Tamim Mr. Bayoumi    Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty by Rossen Rozenov    Labor Force Participation in Chile by Patrick Blagrave & Marika Santoro    Launching Export Accelerations in Latin America and the World by Valerie Ms. Cerra & Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael    Effects of Timeliness on the Trade Pattern between Primary and Processed Goods by Suprabha Baniya    Revisiting the Link between Trade, Growth and Inequality by Kimberly Ms. Beaton & Aliona Cebotari    Understanding Inflation in Malawi by Dong Frank Wu    Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Brazil and Mexico's Sovereign Bond Yields by G & Herman Kamil    Brazilian Market Portfolio by Cristina Tessari & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel    How is the likelihood of fire sales in a crisis affected by the interaction of various bank regulations? by Divya Kirti & Vijay Narasiman    Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in a Small Open Economy by Antonio Mr. David    The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis by Swarnali Ahmed Hannan    Lower Bound Beliefs and Long-Term Interest Rates by Christian Grisse & Signe Krogstrup    Private and Public Debt by Marco Bernardini & Lorenzo Forni    Exchange Rates and Trade by Daniel Mr. Leigh & Weicheng Lian    Macroprudential Policy, Incomplete Information and Inequality by Margarita Rubio & Filiz D. Ms. Unsal    Bank Ownership by Robert Cull & Maria Soledad Martinez Mr. Peria    Pension Reform Options in Chile by Marika Santoro    Aftershocks of Monetary Unification by Tamim Mr. Bayoumi & Barry J. Mr. Eichengreen    Evaluating Changes in the Transmission Mechanism of Government Spending Shocks by Nooman Mr. Rebei    The Impact of Trade Agreements in Latin America using the Synthetic Control Method by Swarnali Ahmed Hannan

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Policy, Risk and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy

Francis Vitek

Policy, Risk and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy by Francis VitekThis paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies, to facilitate multilaterally consistent macrofinancial policy, risk and spillover analysis. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover transmission channels. These macrofinancial linkages encompass bank and capital market based financial intermediation, with financial accelerator mechanisms linked to the values of the housing and physical capital stocks....
2017 / 4 / 19
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Tax Administration Reforms in the Caribbean

Stephane Schlotterbeck

Tax Administration Reforms in the Caribbean by Stephane SchlotterbeckOver the past decade, governments in the Caribbean region have introduced the value-added tax (VAT) to modernize their tax system, rapidly mobilize revenue and reduce budget deficits. This paper analyzes VAT performance in the region and concludes that while it has boosted revenues, the VAT has not reached its potential. Intended as a broad-based tax with limited exemptions, a single rate and zero-rating confined to exports, the VAT's design often lacks these characteristics. The paper also finds that although tax administration reforms can boost revenues, countries have just started to address...
2017 / 4 / 19
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Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions

Tom Mr. Krebs & Martin Mr. Scheffel

Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions by Tom Mr. Krebs & Martin Mr. ScheffelThis paper studies the effect of two labor market institutions, unemployment insurance (UI) and job search assistance (JSA), on the output cost and welfare cost of recessions. The paper develops a tractable incomplete-market model with search unemployment, skill depreciation during unemployment, and idiosyncratic as well as aggregate labor market risk. The theoretical analysis shows that an increase in JSA and a reduction in UI reduce the output cost of recessions by making the labor market more fluid along the job finding margin and thus making the economy more resilient to macroeconomic shocks....
2017 / 4 / 19
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Fiscal Crises

Kerstin Mrs. Gerling & Paulo A. Mr. Medas

Fiscal Crises by Kerstin Mrs. Gerling & Paulo A. Mr. MedasA key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs) that have been mostly ignored in the past. Countries faced on average two crises since 1970, with the highest frequency in LIDCs and lowest in advanced economies. The data sheds some light on policies and economic dynamics around crises. LIDCs, which are usually seen as more vulnerable to shocks,...
2017 / 4 / 19
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Financial Integration in Latin America

Charles Mr. Enoch & Wouter Bossu

Financial Integration in Latin America by Charles Mr. Enoch & Wouter BossuWith growth slowing across much of the Latin America as a result of the end of the commodity supercycle and economic rebalancing in China, as well as fragmentation of the international banking system, policies to stimulate growth are needed. This book examines the financial landscapes of seven Latin American economies-Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay-and makes a case for them to pursue regional financial integration. Chapters set out the benefits to the region of financial integration, the barriers to cross-border activity in banks, insurance companies, pension funds,...
2017 / 4 / 19
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Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?

Dominic Mr. Quint & Pau Mr. Rabanal

Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional? by Dominic Mr. Quint & Pau Mr. RabanalThe large recession that followed the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 triggered unprecedented monetary policy easing around the world. Most central banks in advanced economies deployed new instruments to affect credit conditions and to provide liquidity at a large scale after shortterm policy rates reached their effective lower bound. In this paper, we study if this new set of tools, commonly labeled as unconventional monetary policies (UMP), should still be used when economic conditions and interest rates normalize. In particular, we study the optimality of asset purchase programs by using...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Effectiveness of Fiscal Incentives for R&D

Irem Guceri & Li Ms. Liu

Effectiveness of Fiscal Incentives for R&D by Irem Guceri & Li Ms. LiuWith growing academic and policy interest in research and development (R&D) tax incentives, the question about their effectiveness has become ever more relevant. In the absence of an exogenous policy reform, the simultaneous determination of companies' tax positions and their R&D spending causes an identification problem in evaluating tax incentives. To overcome this identification challenge, we exploit a U.K. policy reform and use the population of corporation tax records that provide precise information on the amount of firm-level R&D expenditure. Using difference-in-differences and other...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Exchange Rate Regimes in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe

Slavi T. Mr. Slavov

Exchange Rate Regimes in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe by Slavi T. Mr. SlavovThere are 13 countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) with floating exchange rate regimes, de jure. This paper uses the framework pioneered by Frankel and Wei (1994) and extended in Frankel and Wei (2008) to show that most of them have been tracking either the euro or the US dollar in recent years. Eight countries, all of them current or aspiring EU members, track the euro. Of the five countries keying on the US dollar in various degrees, all but one belong to the Commonwealth of Independent States. The paper shows that the extent to which each country's currency tracks...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Real Exchange Rate and External Balance

JaeBin Mr. Ahn & Rui Mano

Real Exchange Rate and External Balance by JaeBin Mr. Ahn & Rui ManoThis paper contrasts real exchange rate (RER) measures based on different deflators (CPI, GDP deflator, and ULC) and discusses potential implications for the link-or lack thereof-between RER and external balance. We begin by documenting patterns in the evolution of different measures of RERs, and confirm that the choice of deflator plays a significant role in RER movements. A subsequent empirical investigation based on 35 developed and emerging market economies over 1995 to 2014 yields comprehensive and robust evidence that only the RER deflated by ULC exhibits contemporaneous patterns consistent...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Das House-Kapital

Volker Grossman & Thomas Steger

Das House-Kapital by Volker Grossman & Thomas StegerThere are, by now, several long term, time series data sets on important housing & macro variables, such as land prices, house prices, and the housing wealth-to-income ratio. However, an appropriate theory that can be employed to think about such data and associated research questions has been lacking. We present a new housing & macro model that is designed specifically to analyze the long term. As an illustrative application, we demonstrate that the calibrated model replicates, with remarkable accuracy, the historical evolution of housing wealth (relative to income) after World War II and suggests...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Education Systems and Foreign Direct Investment

Elise Wendlassida Miningou & Sampawende J. Mr. Tapsoba

Education Systems and Foreign Direct Investment by Elise Wendlassida Miningou & Sampawende J. Mr. TapsobaThis paper examines the effect of the efficiency of the education system on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). First, it focuses on the external efficiency and applies a frontier-based measure as a proxy of the ability of countries to optimally convert the average years of schooling into income for individuals. Second, it shows the relationship between the external efficiency of the education system and FDI inflows by applying GMM regression technique. The results show that the efficiency level varies across regions and countries and appears to be driven by higher education and secondary vocational...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management

Cristiano Mr. Cantore & Paul L. Mr. Levine

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management by Cristiano Mr. Cantore & Paul L. Mr. LevineThe initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government's commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Inequality Overhang

Francesco Grigoli & Adrian Robles

Inequality Overhang by Francesco Grigoli & Adrian RoblesThe linearity of the relationship between income inequality and economic development has been long questioned. While theory provides arguments for which the shape of relationship may be positive for low levels of inequality and negative for high ones, most of the empirical literature assumes a linear specification finding conflicting results. Employing an innovative empirical approach robust to endogeneity, we find pervasive evidence of nonlinearities. In particular, similar to the debt overhang literature, we identify an inequality overhang level in that the slope of the relationship between...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Consumption in Brazil

Troy D. Mr. Matheson & G

Consumption in Brazil by Troy D. Mr. Matheson & GPrivate consumption has been a key driver of growth in Brazil for more than a decade. Over this time, Brazilian consumers have benefited from a favorable policy environment, a rapid phase of development-dramatically increasing economic, financial and social inclusion- and a supportive external environment. Meanwhile, infrastructure gaps have widened and investment and productivity levels have fallen behind. The consumption-led growth model now appears to have run its course. The prospect of a period of macroeconomic adjustment presents an opportunity to adjust policy settings to ensure stronger,...
2017 / 4 / 18
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The Effects of Data Transparency Policy Reforms on Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Sangyup Choi & Yuko Ms. Hashimoto

The Effects of Data Transparency Policy Reforms on Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by Sangyup Choi & Yuko Ms. HashimotoWe find that data transparency policy reforms, reflected in subscriptions to the IMF's Data Standards Initiatives (SDDS and GDDS), reduce the spreads of emerging market sovereign bonds. To overcome endogeneity issues regarding a country's decision to adopt such reforms, we first show that the reform decision is largely independent of its macroeconomic development. By using an event study, we find that subscriptions to the SDDS or GDDS leads to a 15 percent reduction in the spreads one year following such reforms. This finding is robust to various sensitivity tests, including careful consideration...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Financial Stability Reports in Latin America and the Caribbean

Cheng Hoon Lim & Alexander D. Mr. Klemm

Financial Stability Reports in Latin America and the Caribbean by Cheng Hoon Lim & Alexander D. Mr. KlemmMany countries in Latin America and the Caribbean now publish financial stability reports. This study reviews their latest issues to assess their content, quality, and transparency. While some reports provide a strong analysis of risks and vulnerabilities, there are significant cross-country differences, and many reports could be improved by adopting a more comprehensive, forward-looking, and thematic assessment of financial stability. A well thought out communication strategy, including a regular and predictable publication schedule and an easily accessible website, is also important to enhance...
2017 / 4 / 18
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World Trade in Services

Prakash Mr. Loungani & Saurabh Mr. Mishra

World Trade in Services by Prakash Mr. Loungani & Saurabh Mr. MishraUsing a newly constructed dataset on trade in services for 192 countries from 1970 to 2014, this paper shows that services currently constitute one-fourth of world trade and an increasingly important component of global production. A detailed analysis of patterns and stylized facts reveals that exports of services are not only gaining strong momentum and catching up with exports of goods in many countries, but they could also trigger a new wave of trade globalization. Research applications of the trade in service dataset on structural transformation, resilience, labor reallocation, and income...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Excessive Private Sector Leverage and Its Drivers

Mariusz Jarmuzek & Rossen Rozenov

Excessive Private Sector Leverage and Its Drivers by Mariusz Jarmuzek & Rossen RozenovNonfinancial private sector debt increased significantly in advanced economies prior to the global financial crisis and, with a few exceptions, deleveraging has been limited. Furthermore, in some countries households and corporations have continued to accumulate debt. Drawing on the literature, the paper aims to provide a quantitative assessment of the gaps between actual and sustainable levels of debt and to identify the key factors that drive excessive borrowing. Results suggest that variables that are typically found important in studies focusing on borrowing decisions, are also relevant...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Does Prolonged Monetary Policy Easing Increase Financial Vulnerability?

Stephen Cecchetti & Tommaso Mancini Mr. Griffoli

Does Prolonged Monetary Policy Easing Increase Financial Vulnerability? by Stephen Cecchetti & Tommaso Mancini Mr. GriffoliUsing firm-level data for approximately 1,000 bank and nonbank financial institutions in 22 countries over the past 15 years we study the impact of prolonged monetary policy easing on risk-taking behavior. We find that the leverage ratio, as well as other measures of firm-level vulnerability, increases for banks and nonbanks as domestic monetary policy easing persists. Cross-border effects are also notable. We find effects of roughly similar magnitude on foreign financial sector firms when the U.S. eases policy. Results appear robust to a variety of specifications, and to be non-linear, with...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Elinor Ostrom and the Bloomington School of Political Economy: A Framework for Policy Analysis

Daniel H. Cole & Michael D. McGinnis

Elinor Ostrom and the Bloomington School of Political Economy: A Framework for Policy Analysis by Daniel H. Cole & Michael D. McGinnisElinor Ostrom and the Bloomington School of Political Economy is a comprehensive collection, in four volumes, of the most important contributions by Ostrom and her colleagues on central issues. This third volume presents policy applications of Ostrom's legacy.
2017 / 4 / 7
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