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    Djibouti by International Monetary Fund. Midd Dept.    Policy, Risk and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy by Francis Vitek    Tax Administration Reforms in the Caribbean by Stephane Schlotterbeck    Republic of San Marino by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.    Ukraine by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.    Ukraine by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.    Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions by Tom Mr. Krebs & Martin Mr. Scheffel    Fiscal Crises by Kerstin Mrs. Gerling & Paulo A. Mr. Medas    Nigeria by International Monetary Fund. Afri Dept.    Nigeria by International Monetary Fund. Afri Dept.    Republic of Nauru by International Monetary Fund. Asia Dept    Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands by International Monetary Fund. Department    Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.    Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.    Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional? by Dominic Mr. Quint & Pau Mr. Rabanal    Effectiveness of Fiscal Incentives for R&D by Irem Guceri & Li Ms. Liu    Exchange Rate Regimes in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe by Slavi T. Mr. Slavov    St. Lucia by International Monetary Fund. West Dept.    Real Exchange Rate and External Balance by JaeBin Mr. Ahn & Rui Mano    Das House-Kapital by Volker Grossman & Thomas Steger    Education Systems and Foreign Direct Investment by Elise Wendlassida Miningou & Sampawende J. Mr. Tapsoba    Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management by Cristiano Mr. Cantore & Paul L. Mr. Levine    Inequality Overhang by Francesco Grigoli & Adrian Robles    Consumption in Brazil by Troy D. Mr. Matheson & G    The Effects of Data Transparency Policy Reforms on Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by Sangyup Choi & Yuko Ms. Hashimoto    Financial Stability Reports in Latin America and the Caribbean by Cheng Hoon Lim & Alexander D. Mr. Klemm    World Trade in Services by Prakash Mr. Loungani & Saurabh Mr. Mishra    Excessive Private Sector Leverage and Its Drivers by Mariusz Jarmuzek & Rossen Rozenov    Does Prolonged Monetary Policy Easing Increase Financial Vulnerability? by Stephen Cecchetti & Tommaso Mancini Mr. Griffoli    Handbook of Research on Global Enterprise Operations and Opportunities by Mehdi Khosrow-Pour    Composition of Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean by Xiaodan Ding & Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov    The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets by Maria Sole Pagliari & Swarnali Ahmed Hannan    Belgium by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.    Can Italy Grow Out of Its NPL Overhang? A Panel Threshold Analysis by Kamiar Mr. Mohaddes & Mehdi Mr. Raissi    Credit-Supply Shocks and Firm Productivity in Italy by D & Mehdi Mr. Raissi    Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Dutch Disease by Julia Faltermeier & Ruy Mr. Lama    The Macroeconomics of De-Cashing by Alexei P. Mr. Kireyev    Nepal by International Monetary Fund. Asia Dept    Managing the Tide by Atish R. Mr. Ghosh & Jonathan David Mr. Ostry    Direct and Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies by Joseph E. Mr. Gagnon & Tamim Mr. Bayoumi    Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty by Rossen Rozenov    Labor Force Participation in Chile by Patrick Blagrave & Marika Santoro    Launching Export Accelerations in Latin America and the World by Valerie Ms. Cerra & Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael    Effects of Timeliness on the Trade Pattern between Primary and Processed Goods by Suprabha Baniya    Revisiting the Link between Trade, Growth and Inequality by Kimberly Ms. Beaton & Aliona Cebotari    Cluster Report by International Monetary Fund. West Dept.    Paraguay by International Monetary Fund. Fisc Dept.    Understanding Inflation in Malawi by Dong Frank Wu    Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Brazil and Mexico's Sovereign Bond Yields by G & Herman Kamil    Brazilian Market Portfolio by Cristina Tessari & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

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Djibouti

International Monetary Fund. Midd Dept.

Djibouti by International Monetary Fund. Midd Dept.Djibouti is expanding its infrastructure to leverage its strategic location and foster growth, reduce poverty, and create jobs. The remarkable investments in ports and railways-started in 2015 and mostly debt-financed by financial institutions from China-presents opportunities as well as risks. With public debt rising from 50 to 85 percent of GDP in just two years, the authorities need to advance rapidly with critical reforms. Such reforms would aim at translating the investment boom into strong, inclusive, and job-creating growth to reduce poverty and return to a sustainable debt trajectory...
2017 / 4 / 19
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Policy, Risk and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy

Francis Vitek

Policy, Risk and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy by Francis VitekThis paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies, to facilitate multilaterally consistent macrofinancial policy, risk and spillover analysis. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover transmission channels. These macrofinancial linkages encompass bank and capital market based financial intermediation, with financial accelerator mechanisms linked to the values of the housing and physical capital stocks....
2017 / 4 / 19
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Tax Administration Reforms in the Caribbean

Stephane Schlotterbeck

Tax Administration Reforms in the Caribbean by Stephane SchlotterbeckOver the past decade, governments in the Caribbean region have introduced the value-added tax (VAT) to modernize their tax system, rapidly mobilize revenue and reduce budget deficits. This paper analyzes VAT performance in the region and concludes that while it has boosted revenues, the VAT has not reached its potential. Intended as a broad-based tax with limited exemptions, a single rate and zero-rating confined to exports, the VAT's design often lacks these characteristics. The paper also finds that although tax administration reforms can boost revenues, countries have just started to address...
2017 / 4 / 19
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Republic of San Marino

International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.

Republic of San Marino by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.A moderate recovery has set in, supported by an increasing number of new firms and rising employment. Fiscal deficits are contained and some efforts are underway to assess and better address test banking sector weaknesses. However, the challenges of restoring financial stability, creating fiscal space, and achieving sustainable growth remain considerable.
2017 / 4 / 19
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Ukraine

International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.

Ukraine by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.Following the 2014-15 crisis, the economy is growing again and tight fiscal and monetary policies have greatly reduced internal and external imbalances. Inflation has been successfully brought down and reserves-while still being relatively low-have doubled to US$15 billion. The pace of the recovery, however, has been modest, and faster growth is needed if Ukraine is to catch up with its regional peers and lift per capita income levels that have declined to among the lowest in the region.
2017 / 4 / 19
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Ukraine

International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.

Ukraine by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.Ukraine: Selected Issues
2017 / 4 / 19
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Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions

Tom Mr. Krebs & Martin Mr. Scheffel

Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions by Tom Mr. Krebs & Martin Mr. ScheffelThis paper studies the effect of two labor market institutions, unemployment insurance (UI) and job search assistance (JSA), on the output cost and welfare cost of recessions. The paper develops a tractable incomplete-market model with search unemployment, skill depreciation during unemployment, and idiosyncratic as well as aggregate labor market risk. The theoretical analysis shows that an increase in JSA and a reduction in UI reduce the output cost of recessions by making the labor market more fluid along the job finding margin and thus making the economy more resilient to macroeconomic shocks....
2017 / 4 / 19
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Fiscal Crises

Kerstin Mrs. Gerling & Paulo A. Mr. Medas

Fiscal Crises by Kerstin Mrs. Gerling & Paulo A. Mr. MedasA key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs) that have been mostly ignored in the past. Countries faced on average two crises since 1970, with the highest frequency in LIDCs and lowest in advanced economies. The data sheds some light on policies and economic dynamics around crises. LIDCs, which are usually seen as more vulnerable to shocks,...
2017 / 4 / 19
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Nigeria

International Monetary Fund. Afri Dept.

Nigeria by International Monetary Fund. Afri Dept.Nigeria: Selected Issues
2017 / 4 / 19
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Nigeria

International Monetary Fund. Afri Dept.

Nigeria by International Monetary Fund. Afri Dept.The slump in oil prices and production and an inadequate policy response are increasing unemployment and undermining efforts to reduce poverty. The authorities took some steps in 2016 to reduce vulnerabilities, mainly by deregulating fuel prices, increasing the monetary policy rate, and allowing currency depreciation to reduce the exchange rate misalignment. However, further actions are urgently needed to tackle the low revenue effort, large infrastructure deficit, rising debt service, double-digit inflation, and a foreign exchange market marred by restrictions. These actions need to be supported...
2017 / 4 / 19
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Republic of Nauru

International Monetary Fund. Asia Dept

Republic of Nauru by International Monetary Fund. Asia DeptThis is the first Article IV Consultation since Nauru became the 189th Fund member in April 2016. Nauru's growth and government revenue have improved substantially in recent years owing to the Australian Regional Processing Center (RPC) to process asylum seekers, fishing license fees, and residual phosphate mining. However, Nauru faces daunting challenges in sustaining growth and ensuring fiscal sustainability due to its limited sources of growth and income. The country is also vulnerable to climate change, its antiquated infrastructure hampers trade and growth, and its health indicators are...
2017 / 4 / 19
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Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands

International Monetary Fund. Department

Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands by International Monetary Fund. DepartmentThe Netherlands has a large and globally interconnected financial system, with assets nearly eight times gross domestic product (GDP). The country is home to a globally systemically important bank (G-SIB) and a globally systemic important insurer (G-SII). The banking system comprises half of the financial sector and is concentrated in four domestic banks. During the financial crisis, the government bailed out a number of weak banks and it remains part owner of two. The pension system is ranked first globally by share of GDP and the insurance sector has consolidated assets amounting to about...
2017 / 4 / 19
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Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands

International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.

Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.The Netherlands is in the third year of a gradual recovery. Following a double-dip recession, the economy has been steadily accelerating in the context of increasing house prices and gradually improving household balance sheets, rising consumption but weak credit growth. Growth is projected to remain solid in the baseline, but it will be held back by the ongoing process of deleveraging on the part of banks, firms, and households and by lackluster medium-term prospects for the country's major trading partners (including in relation to Brexit). In this scenario, the economy is only projected to...
2017 / 4 / 19
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Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands

International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.

Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands by International Monetary Fund. Euro Dept.Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands: Selected Issues
2017 / 4 / 19
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Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?

Dominic Mr. Quint & Pau Mr. Rabanal

Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional? by Dominic Mr. Quint & Pau Mr. RabanalThe large recession that followed the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 triggered unprecedented monetary policy easing around the world. Most central banks in advanced economies deployed new instruments to affect credit conditions and to provide liquidity at a large scale after shortterm policy rates reached their effective lower bound. In this paper, we study if this new set of tools, commonly labeled as unconventional monetary policies (UMP), should still be used when economic conditions and interest rates normalize. In particular, we study the optimality of asset purchase programs by using...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Effectiveness of Fiscal Incentives for R&D

Irem Guceri & Li Ms. Liu

Effectiveness of Fiscal Incentives for R&D by Irem Guceri & Li Ms. LiuWith growing academic and policy interest in research and development (R&D) tax incentives, the question about their effectiveness has become ever more relevant. In the absence of an exogenous policy reform, the simultaneous determination of companies' tax positions and their R&D spending causes an identification problem in evaluating tax incentives. To overcome this identification challenge, we exploit a U.K. policy reform and use the population of corporation tax records that provide precise information on the amount of firm-level R&D expenditure. Using difference-in-differences and other...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Exchange Rate Regimes in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe

Slavi T. Mr. Slavov

Exchange Rate Regimes in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe by Slavi T. Mr. SlavovThere are 13 countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) with floating exchange rate regimes, de jure. This paper uses the framework pioneered by Frankel and Wei (1994) and extended in Frankel and Wei (2008) to show that most of them have been tracking either the euro or the US dollar in recent years. Eight countries, all of them current or aspiring EU members, track the euro. Of the five countries keying on the US dollar in various degrees, all but one belong to the Commonwealth of Independent States. The paper shows that the extent to which each country's currency tracks...
2017 / 4 / 18
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St. Lucia

International Monetary Fund. West Dept.

St. Lucia by International Monetary Fund. West Dept.Despite some limited improvement in labor market conditions, unemployment remains high and growth modest as low competitiveness and structural bottlenecks continue to weigh on economic performance. Slow progress in addressing financial sector problems has left banks loaded with impaired assets and unable to support the economy. The new government is developing a program of pro-growth reforms, but policies have not yet been defined.
2017 / 4 / 18
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Real Exchange Rate and External Balance

JaeBin Mr. Ahn & Rui Mano

Real Exchange Rate and External Balance by JaeBin Mr. Ahn & Rui ManoThis paper contrasts real exchange rate (RER) measures based on different deflators (CPI, GDP deflator, and ULC) and discusses potential implications for the link-or lack thereof-between RER and external balance. We begin by documenting patterns in the evolution of different measures of RERs, and confirm that the choice of deflator plays a significant role in RER movements. A subsequent empirical investigation based on 35 developed and emerging market economies over 1995 to 2014 yields comprehensive and robust evidence that only the RER deflated by ULC exhibits contemporaneous patterns consistent...
2017 / 4 / 18
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Das House-Kapital

Volker Grossman & Thomas Steger

Das House-Kapital by Volker Grossman & Thomas StegerThere are, by now, several long term, time series data sets on important housing & macro variables, such as land prices, house prices, and the housing wealth-to-income ratio. However, an appropriate theory that can be employed to think about such data and associated research questions has been lacking. We present a new housing & macro model that is designed specifically to analyze the long term. As an illustrative application, we demonstrate that the calibrated model replicates, with remarkable accuracy, the historical evolution of housing wealth (relative to income) after World War II and suggests...
2017 / 4 / 18
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05/26/2017
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